FISHMIP-OSP

The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): a new scenario and simulation framework to investigate the future of the world fisheries

Predicting the trajectories of marine social-ecological systems is complex. Since 2013, the FishMIP model intercomparison programme has produced global multi-model projections of climate impacts on marine ecosystems, contributing to IPCC, IPBES and FAO reports.

The FISHMIP-OSP project aims to extend this work to the projection of the future of global fisheries. It is based on the Ocean System Pathways (OSPs) scenarios that describe the past and future socio-economic contexts of pelagic and bentho-demersal fisheries as well as mariculture. FISHMIP-OSP will homogenise the data used to force and evaluate the models. It will develop standardised simulation protocols for the simulation of marine ecosystems and fisheries and evaluate historical simulations. Analysis of the OSP-based simulations will focus on climate justice, food security, North-South equity in fisheries, aquaculture development and biodiversity conservation.

The results of the project will inform policy development at FAO and contribute to future IPCC and IPBES reports.

Researchers

Principal Investigators:

MAURY Olivier – IRD (France) ;

TITTENSOR Derek – Dalhousie University (Canada)

ouvrir/fermer Participants :

BAHRI Tarub – Food and Agriculture Organization (Italy) ; BRYNDUM-BUCHHOLZ Andrea – Memorial University (Canada) ; BLANCHARD Julia – Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania (Australia) ; CAMPLING Liam – Queen Mary University of London (England) ; EDDY Tyler – Memorial University (Canada) ; FULTON Beth – CSIRO (Australia) ; GARCIA Dorleta – AZTI (Spain) ; HENEGHAN Ryan – Griffith University (Australia) ; NOVAGLIO Camilla – University of Tasmania and FAO (Australia) ; VAN RUIJVEN Bas – IIASA (Austria)

The FISHMIP-OSP project brings together specialists in marine ecology, biodiversity, fisheries, fisheries economics, fisheries policy, ecosystem and fleet modeling, climate change, statistical analysis methods, and scenarios.

Project

FISHMIP-OSP was selected from the 2024 FRB-CESAB call for proposals. The project selection process was carried out by a committee of independant experts.